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Atlético La Cruz vs Marítimo — Segunda División 2018

Atlético La Cruz
Atlético La Cruz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Marítimo
Marítimo
8/9/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 5Estadio Alexander Comanche Bottini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Atlético La Cruz41%
×Draw29%
Marítimo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético La Cruz
1.19
Marítimo
0.97

Atlético La Cruz creates 23% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 55 away

creates per match

Atlético La Cruz
1.31
Marítimo
1.22

allows per match

Atlético La Cruz
0.73
Marítimo
1.07

finishing

Atlético La Cruz+0.00on par
Marítimo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético La Cruz ↓

Marítimo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atlético La Cruz or draw
70%
Atlético La Cruz or Marítimo
71%
Draw or Marítimo
59%

Winning margin

Atlético La Cruz wins by 2+
18%
Marítimo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atlético La Cruz 1+ goals
70%
Atlético La Cruz 2+ goals
33%
Atlético La Cruz 3+ goals
12%
Marítimo 1+ goals
62%
Marítimo 2+ goals
25%
Marítimo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético La Cruz (draw refunded)
58%
Marítimo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético La Cruz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.73 · 52 matches

Marítimo away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.07 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético La Cruz attack 1.31 + Marítimo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Marítimo attack 1.22 + Atlético La Cruz defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético La Cruz scores more
41%
level
29%
Marítimo scores more
30%

Atlético La Cruz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético La Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Atlético La Cruz 1–1 Marítimo

Atlético La Cruz and Marítimo drew 1-1 in Segunda División on August 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Alexander Comanche Bottini in Maturín.