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Atletico Goianiense vs Athletic Club — Serie B 2026

Atletico Goianiense
Atletico Goianiense
Preview
21:00
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
7/18/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 18
47%
Atletico Goianiense
model favours
47%26%27%

83% of Atletico Goianiense’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Atletico Goianiense47%
×Draw26%
Athletic Club27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Goianiense
1.48
Athletic Club
1.07

Atletico Goianiense creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense
1.58
Athletic Club
1.07

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense
1.07
Athletic Club
1.38

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.41scores less
Athletic Club-0.07on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Athletic Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw
73%
Atletico Goianiense or Athletic Club
74%
Draw or Athletic Club
53%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+
23%
Athletic Club wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals
77%
Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals
43%
Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals
19%
Athletic Club 1+ goals
66%
Athletic Club 2+ goals
29%
Athletic Club 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)
63%
Athletic Club (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.07 · 6 matches

Athletic Club away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.38 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.58 + Athletic Club defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Athletic Club attack 1.07 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more
47%
level
26%
Athletic Club scores more
27%

Atletico Goianiense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 83% of Athletic Club’s matches
  • Atletico Goianiense score first in only 28% of matches
  • 75% of Athletic Club’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Athletic Club win just 16% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)
  • Atletico Goianiense fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Atletico Goianiense
Balanced
Athletic Club
Balanced
51%Possession47%
80%Pass accuracy79%
13.3Shots12.2
1.63xGBiggest gap1.19
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Atletico GoianienseAthletic Club

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Goianiense
WLWDD
Club
DLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atletico Goianiense face Athletic Club (Serie B)

Serie B returns with Atletico Goianiense hosting Athletic Club. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.