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Atletico el Vigia FC vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez — Segunda División 2018

Atletico el Vigia FC
Atletico el Vigia FC
FT
1 – 1
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
7/29/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 2Estadio Ramón Gato Hernández (El Vigía)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Atletico el Vigia FC43%
×Draw25%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico el Vigia FC
1.57
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.34

Atletico el Vigia FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 37 away

creates per match

Atletico el Vigia FC
1.50
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.49

allows per match

Atletico el Vigia FC
1.20
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.65

finishing

Atletico el Vigia FC+0.00on par
CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico el Vigia FC ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Atletico el Vigia FC or draw
67%
Atletico el Vigia FC or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
75%
Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
57%

Winning margin

Atletico el Vigia FC wins by 2+
21%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atletico el Vigia FC 1+ goals
79%
Atletico el Vigia FC 2+ goals
46%
Atletico el Vigia FC 3+ goals
21%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
74%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
39%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Atletico el Vigia FC (draw refunded)
57%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico el Vigia FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 104 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico el Vigia FC attack 1.50 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.57

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.49 + Atletico el Vigia FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atletico el Vigia FC scores more
43%
level
25%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
33%

Atletico el Vigia FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atletico el Vigia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico el Vigia FC vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez

Atletico el Vigia FC and CD Hermanos Colmenarez drew 1-1 in Segunda División on July 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Gato Hernández (El Vigía).