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Atlético CP vs Caldas — Liga 3 2021

Atlético CP
Atlético CP
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Caldas
Caldas
11/5/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 10Estádio Da Tapadinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Atlético CP44%
×Draw27%
Caldas29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético CP
1.38
Caldas
1.08

Atlético CP creates 28% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 70 away

creates per match

Atlético CP
1.33
Caldas
1.16

allows per match

Atlético CP
1.00
Caldas
1.43

finishing

Atlético CP+0.00on par
Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético CP ↓

Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético CP or draw
71%
Atlético CP or Caldas
73%
Draw or Caldas
56%

Winning margin

Atlético CP wins by 2+
21%
Caldas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atlético CP 1+ goals
75%
Atlético CP 2+ goals
40%
Atlético CP 3+ goals
16%
Caldas 1+ goals
66%
Caldas 2+ goals
29%
Caldas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético CP (draw refunded)
60%
Caldas (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético CP at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 46 matches

Caldas away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético CP attack 1.33 + Caldas defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Caldas attack 1.16 + Atlético CP defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlético CP scores more
44%
level
27%
Caldas scores more
29%

Atlético CP at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlético CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético CP vs Caldas

Caldas beat Atlético CP 2-0 in Liga 3 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Da Tapadinha in Lisboa.