Atlético Chiriquí 0–0 Herrera: Result & Stats

Atlético Chiriquí

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Herrera

10/31/2021

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 13Estadio San Cristóbal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Atlético Chiriquí38%

×Draw27%

Herrera36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético ChiriquíExpected goals in this matchHerrera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.25

Atlético Chiriquí

1.29

Herrera

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 92 away

0.99

creates per match

0.97

1.54

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Atlético Chiriquí

0.99

Herrera

0.97

allows per match

Atlético Chiriquí

1.54

Herrera

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Chiriquí+0.00on par

Herrera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Chiriquí ↓

Herrera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Chiriquí or draw

64%

Atlético Chiriquí or Herrera

73%

Draw or Herrera

62%

Winning margin

Atlético Chiriquí wins by 2+

17%

Herrera wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Atlético Chiriquí 1+ goals

72%

Atlético Chiriquí 2+ goals

37%

Atlético Chiriquí 3+ goals

14%

Herrera 1+ goals

71%

Herrera 2+ goals

36%

Herrera 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Chiriquí (draw refunded)

51%

Herrera (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Chiriquí at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

Herrera away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.60 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Chiriquí attack 0.99 + Herrera defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.29

Herrera attack 0.97 + Atlético Chiriquí defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlético Chiriquí scores more

38%

level

27%

Herrera scores more

36%

Atlético Chiriquí at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Chiriquí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff