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Atlético Chiriquí vs Deportivo Universitario — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Atlético Chiriquí
Atlético Chiriquí
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Universitario
Deportivo Universitario
4/23/2022Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 13Estadio San Cristóbal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Atlético Chiriquí34%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Universitario39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Chiriquí
1.16
Deportivo Universitario
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 129 away

creates per match

Atlético Chiriquí
0.99
Deportivo Universitario
1.01

allows per match

Atlético Chiriquí
1.54
Deportivo Universitario
1.33

finishing

Atlético Chiriquí+0.00on par
Deportivo Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Chiriquí ↓

Deportivo Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Chiriquí or draw
61%
Atlético Chiriquí or Deportivo Universitario
73%
Draw or Deportivo Universitario
66%

Winning margin

Atlético Chiriquí wins by 2+
14%
Deportivo Universitario wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atlético Chiriquí 1+ goals
69%
Atlético Chiriquí 2+ goals
32%
Atlético Chiriquí 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Universitario 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Universitario 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Universitario 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Chiriquí (draw refunded)
46%
Deportivo Universitario (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Chiriquí at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

Deportivo Universitario away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.33 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Chiriquí attack 0.99 + Deportivo Universitario defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Deportivo Universitario attack 1.01 + Atlético Chiriquí defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Chiriquí scores more
34%
level
27%
Deportivo Universitario scores more
39%

Deportivo Universitario at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Chiriquí vs Deportivo Universitario

Atlético Chiriquí beat Deportivo Universitario 1-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio San Cristóbal in Ciudad de David.