Atlético Chiriquí 3–2 Costa del Este

Atlético Chiriquí

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Costa del Este

4/10/2021

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 10Estadio San Cristóbal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Atlético Chiriquí31%

×Draw28%

Costa del Este41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético ChiriquíExpected goals in this matchCosta del Este

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.28

Atlético Chiriquí

1.08

Costa del Este

1.28

Costa del Este creates 19% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 111 away

0.99

creates per match

1.02

1.54

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Atlético Chiriquí

0.99

Costa del Este

1.02

allows per match

Atlético Chiriquí

1.54

Costa del Este

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Chiriquí+0.00on par

Costa del Este+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Chiriquí ↓

Costa del Este →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Chiriquí or draw

59%

Atlético Chiriquí or Costa del Este

72%

Draw or Costa del Este

69%

Winning margin

Atlético Chiriquí wins by 2+

12%

Costa del Este wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Atlético Chiriquí 1+ goals

66%

Atlético Chiriquí 2+ goals

29%

Atlético Chiriquí 3+ goals

10%

Costa del Este 1+ goals

72%

Costa del Este 2+ goals

37%

Costa del Este 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Chiriquí (draw refunded)

43%

Costa del Este (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Chiriquí at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

Costa del Este away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.18 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Chiriquí attack 0.99 + Costa del Este defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.08

Costa del Este attack 1.02 + Atlético Chiriquí defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Chiriquí scores more

31%

level

28%

Costa del Este scores more

41%

Costa del Este at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Costa del Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff