Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atlético Astorga vs Salamanca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Astorga
Atlético Astorga
CANC
00:00
Salamanca II
Salamanca II
4/23/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 38Estadio La Eragudina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Atlético Astorga52%
×Draw26%
Salamanca II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Astorga
1.51
Salamanca II
0.89

Atlético Astorga creates 70% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 61 away

creates per match

Atlético Astorga
1.68
Salamanca II
1.00

allows per match

Atlético Astorga
0.77
Salamanca II
1.34

finishing

Atlético Astorga+0.00on par
Salamanca II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Astorga ↓

Salamanca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Astorga or draw
78%
Atlético Astorga or Salamanca II
74%
Draw or Salamanca II
48%

Winning margin

Atlético Astorga wins by 2+
26%
Salamanca II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atlético Astorga 1+ goals
78%
Atlético Astorga 2+ goals
44%
Atlético Astorga 3+ goals
19%
Salamanca II 1+ goals
59%
Salamanca II 2+ goals
22%
Salamanca II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)
70%
Salamanca II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Astorga at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.77 · 93 matches

Salamanca II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Astorga attack 1.68 + Salamanca II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.51

Salamanca II attack 1.00 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atlético Astorga scores more
52%
level
26%
Salamanca II scores more
22%

Atlético Astorga at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atlético Astorga host Salamanca II

April 23, 2020: Atlético Astorga take on Salamanca II in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Atlético Astorga host Salamanca II at Estadio La Eragudina.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.