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Atlético Albericia vs Guarnizo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
CANC
00:00
Guarnizo
Guarnizo
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 30Estadio Juan Hormaechea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Atlético Albericia42%
×Draw26%
Guarnizo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Albericia
1.40
Guarnizo
1.20

Atlético Albericia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 111 away

creates per match

Atlético Albericia
1.60
Guarnizo
1.23

allows per match

Atlético Albericia
1.17
Guarnizo
1.20

finishing

Atlético Albericia+0.00on par
Guarnizo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Albericia ↓

Guarnizo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Albericia or draw
68%
Atlético Albericia or Guarnizo
74%
Draw or Guarnizo
58%

Winning margin

Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
20%
Guarnizo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
41%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
17%
Guarnizo 1+ goals
70%
Guarnizo 2+ goals
34%
Guarnizo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
56%
Guarnizo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Albericia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.17 · 108 matches

Guarnizo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Albericia attack 1.60 + Guarnizo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atlético Albericia scores more
42%
level
26%
Guarnizo scores more
32%

Atlético Albericia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atlético Albericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atlético Albericia host Guarnizo

March 22, 2020: Atlético Albericia take on Guarnizo in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Atlético Albericia host Guarnizo at Estadio Juan Hormaechea.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.