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Atlas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Atlas
Atlas
Preview
23:00
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
9/19/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 9Estadio Jalisco
Big match
41%
Atlas
model favours
41%27%32%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas score first in only 29% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Atlas41%
×Draw27%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlas
1.33
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.16

Atlas creates 15% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 151 away

creates per match

Atlas
1.12
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.13

allows per match

Atlas
1.19
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.54

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlas or draw
68%
Atlas or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
73%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
59%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+
19%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals
74%
Atlas 2+ goals
38%
Atlas 3+ goals
15%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
69%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
32%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)
56%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 142 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.12 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Atlas defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlas scores more
41%
level
27%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
32%

Atlas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Atlas win just 28% against the top half (vs 53% against the bottom)
  • Atlas outscore their xG (1.4 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Atlas
Balanced
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Balanced
47%Possession51%
79%Pass accuracy82%
11.6Shots12.4
1.06xGBiggest gap1.42
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AtlasU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Atlas
6
Draws
3
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Avg goals: 1.6BTTS: 30%
2–20–10–02–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Atlas
WLDLL
Pumas
LLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atlas host U.N.A.M. - Pumas

September 19, 2026: Atlas take on U.N.A.M. - Pumas in Liga MX. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Atlas host U.N.A.M. - Pumas at Estadio Jalisco.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.