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Atlas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Atlas
Atlas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
V. Malcorra 51'
J. Dinenno 89', 42'
8/4/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 2Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 141+ matches

Atlas40%
×Draw27%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlas
1.33
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.17

Atlas creates 14% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 151 away

creates per match

Atlas
1.12
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.13

allows per match

Atlas
1.20
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.54

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlas or draw
67%
Atlas or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
73%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
60%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+
18%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals
74%
Atlas 2+ goals
38%
Atlas 3+ goals
15%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
69%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
33%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)
55%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.20 · 141 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.12 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Atlas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atlas scores more
40%
level
27%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
33%

Atlas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. DinennoU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · F
8.6

Match Events

16'
Nicolás Freire
23'
Ignacio Jeraldino
35'
Sebastian Saucedo
42'
J. Dinenno
44'
Lorenzo Reyes
46'
J. Iturbe← F. Álvarez
51'
V. Malcorra↳ Jesús Alberto Angulo Uriarte
57'
A. Mozo← S. Saucedo
60'
Luciano Acosta
77'
B. Figueroa← Jerónimo Rodríguez
77'
M. Mayorga← C. Gutiérrez
81'
J. Mungaray← I. Jeraldino
81'
I. Torres← L. Acosta
89'
J. Dinenno
90'
Amaury Garcia Moreno
90+1'
Amaury García← J. Dinenno

Possession

57%Atlas

Shots

12Atlas

Pass accuracy

52%Atlas

Statistics

AtlasU.N.A.M.
Overview
57%Possession43%
12Total Shots18
7Corners2
19Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots18
6On Target5
2Off Target5
4Blocked8
8Inside Box12
4Outside Box6
Passing
57%Possession43%
314Total Passes230
247Accurate Passes166
79%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
19Fouls14
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Liga MX: Atlas 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat Atlas 2-1 in Liga MX on August 4, 2020.

Goals: J. Dinenno (42', 89'), V. Malcorra (51').

Atlas controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.