Atlas vs Club Queretaro: Preview & Prediction

Atlas

Preview

23:00

Club Queretaro

8/29/2026

Liga MX · Apertura - 6Estadio Jalisco

Big match

46%

Atlas

model favours

46%26%27%

1–1

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Atlas46%

×Draw26%

Club Queretaro27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtlasExpected goals in this matchClub Queretaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.05

Atlas

1.45

Club Queretaro

1.05

Atlas creates 38% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 137 away

1.12

creates per match

0.91

1.19

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Atlas

1.12

Club Queretaro

0.91

allows per match

Atlas

1.19

Club Queretaro

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Club Queretaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlas or draw

73%

Atlas or Club Queretaro

74%

Draw or Club Queretaro

54%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+

23%

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals

77%

Atlas 2+ goals

42%

Atlas 3+ goals

18%

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

65%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

28%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)

63%

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 142 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.77 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.12 + Club Queretaro defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.45

Club Queretaro attack 0.91 + Atlas defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atlas scores more

46%

level

26%

Club Queretaro scores more

27%

Atlas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Club Queretaro fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.4 expected)
Atlas outscore their xG (1.4 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Atlas

Balanced

Club Queretaro

Direct / counter-attacking

47%PossessionBiggest gap35%

79%Pass accuracy72%

11.6Shots9.5

1.06xG1.37

AtlasClub Queretaro

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5

Atlas

3

Draws

2

Club Queretaro

Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 60%

0–03–32–10–12–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Atlas

WLDLL

Queretaro

LWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlas face Club Queretaro (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with Atlas hosting Club Queretaro. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Atlas host Club Queretaro at Estadio Jalisco.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Atlas vs Club Queretaro — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Atlas face Club Queretaro (Liga MX)