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Atlantis vs KPV-j — Suomen Cup 2018

Atlantis
Atlantis
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
KPV-j
KPV-j
5/31/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 5th RoundAlgeco Areena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Atlantis46%
×Draw20%
KPV-j34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlantis
2.26
KPV-j
1.95

Atlantis creates 16% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Atlantis
2.75
KPV-j
3.15

allows per match

Atlantis
0.75
KPV-j
1.77

finishing

Atlantis+0.00on par
KPV-j+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlantis ↓

KPV-j →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Atlantis or draw
66%
Atlantis or KPV-j
80%
Draw or KPV-j
54%

Winning margin

Atlantis wins by 2+
27%
KPV-j wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Atlantis 1+ goals
89%
Atlantis 2+ goals
66%
Atlantis 3+ goals
39%
KPV-j 1+ goals
86%
KPV-j 2+ goals
58%
KPV-j 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Atlantis (draw refunded)
57%
KPV-j (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlantis at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

KPV-j away — creates 3.15, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlantis attack 2.75 + KPV-j defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.26

KPV-j attack 3.15 + Atlantis defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atlantis scores more
46%
level
20%
KPV-j scores more
34%

Atlantis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlantis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Atlantis 0–1 KPV-j

KPV-j beat Atlantis 1-0 in Suomen Cup on May 31, 2023.

The match was played at Algeco Areena TN in Helsinki.