Atlante FC 0–0 Pumas Tabasco: Result & Stats

Atlante FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pumas Tabasco

12/7/2020

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Ciudad de los Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Atlante FC54%

×Draw24%

Pumas Tabasco21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlante FCExpected goals in this matchPumas Tabasco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.94

Atlante FC

1.67

Pumas Tabasco

0.94

Atlante FC creates 78% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 50 away

1.73

creates per match

1.26

0.62

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Atlante FC

1.73

Pumas Tabasco

1.26

allows per match

Atlante FC

0.62

Pumas Tabasco

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlante FC+0.00on par

Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlante FC ↓

Pumas Tabasco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlante FC or draw

79%

Atlante FC or Pumas Tabasco

76%

Draw or Pumas Tabasco

46%

Winning margin

Atlante FC wins by 2+

30%

Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atlante FC 1+ goals

81%

Atlante FC 2+ goals

50%

Atlante FC 3+ goals

23%

Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals

61%

Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals

24%

Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atlante FC (draw refunded)

72%

Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlante FC at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.62 · 147 matches

Pumas Tabasco away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlante FC attack 1.73 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.67

Pumas Tabasco attack 1.26 + Atlante FC defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atlante FC scores more

54%

level

24%

Pumas Tabasco scores more

21%

Atlante FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atlante FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff