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Atlanta vs Almagro — Primera Nacional 2026

Atlanta
Atlanta
Preview
23:00
Almagro
Almagro
7/27/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 22
47%
Atlanta
model favours
47%30%24%
1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
38%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Atlanta47%
×Draw30%
Almagro24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlanta
1.23
Almagro
0.78

Atlanta creates 58% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 125 away

creates per match

Atlanta
1.16
Almagro
0.76

allows per match

Atlanta
0.80
Almagro
1.30

finishing

Atlanta+0.00on par
Almagro+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlanta ↓

Almagro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Atlanta or draw
76%
Atlanta or Almagro
70%
Draw or Almagro
53%

Winning margin

Atlanta wins by 2+
21%
Almagro wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atlanta 1+ goals
71%
Atlanta 2+ goals
35%
Atlanta 3+ goals
13%
Almagro 1+ goals
54%
Almagro 2+ goals
18%
Almagro 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlanta (draw refunded)
67%
Almagro (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlanta at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.80 · 117 matches

Almagro away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.30 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlanta attack 1.16 + Almagro defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Almagro attack 0.76 + Atlanta defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atlanta scores more
47%
level
30%
Almagro scores more
24%

Atlanta at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atlanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Atlanta
WLLWW
Almagro
LWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atlanta host Almagro

July 27, 2026: Atlanta take on Almagro in Primera Nacional. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.