Atlanta United FC 4–2 Columbus Crew: Result & Stats

Atlanta United FC

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Columbus Crew

11/8/2023

Major League Soccer · MLS Cup - Round 1Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Atlanta United FC41%

×Draw26%

Columbus Crew34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlanta United FCExpected goals in this matchColumbus Crew

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.27

Atlanta United FC

1.42

Columbus Crew

1.27

Atlanta United FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 27 away

1.43

creates per match

1.26

1.29

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Atlanta United FC

1.43

Columbus Crew

1.26

allows per match

Atlanta United FC

1.29

Columbus Crew

1.40

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

Atlanta United FC+0.18scores more

Columbus Crew+0.30scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlanta United FC ↓

Columbus Crew →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atlanta United FC or draw

66%

Atlanta United FC or Columbus Crew

74%

Draw or Columbus Crew

59%

Winning margin

Atlanta United FC wins by 2+

19%

Columbus Crew wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Atlanta United FC 1+ goals

76%

Atlanta United FC 2+ goals

41%

Atlanta United FC 3+ goals

17%

Columbus Crew 1+ goals

72%

Columbus Crew 2+ goals

36%

Columbus Crew 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atlanta United FC (draw refunded)

55%

Columbus Crew (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlanta United FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 18 matches

Columbus Crew away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.40 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlanta United FC attack 1.43 + Columbus Crew defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Columbus Crew attack 1.26 + Atlanta United FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlanta United FC scores more

41%

level

26%

Columbus Crew scores more

34%

Atlanta United FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlanta United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff