Atlanta United FC 2–1 CF Montreal: Result & Stats

Atlanta United FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CF Montreal

6/29/2019

Major League Soccer · Round 21Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Atlanta United FC43%

×Draw24%

CF Montreal32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlanta United FCExpected goals in this matchCF Montreal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.34

Atlanta United FC

1.59

CF Montreal

1.34

Atlanta United FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

1.43

creates per match

1.39

1.29

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Atlanta United FC

1.43

CF Montreal

1.39

allows per match

Atlanta United FC

1.29

CF Montreal

1.76

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Atlanta United FC+0.18scores more

CF Montreal+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlanta United FC ↓

CF Montreal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Atlanta United FC or draw

68%

Atlanta United FC or CF Montreal

76%

Draw or CF Montreal

57%

Winning margin

Atlanta United FC wins by 2+

22%

CF Montreal wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Atlanta United FC 1+ goals

80%

Atlanta United FC 2+ goals

47%

Atlanta United FC 3+ goals

21%

CF Montreal 1+ goals

74%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

39%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Atlanta United FC (draw refunded)

57%

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlanta United FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 18 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlanta United FC attack 1.43 + CF Montreal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.59

CF Montreal attack 1.39 + Atlanta United FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlanta United FC scores more

43%

level

24%

CF Montreal scores more

32%

Atlanta United FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atlanta United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff