ATK Mohun Bagan 2–5 Odisha: Result & Stats

ATK Mohun Bagan

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Odisha

11/27/2023

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

ATK Mohun Bagan51%

×Draw19%

Odisha30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ATK Mohun BaganExpected goals in this matchOdisha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.86

ATK Mohun Bagan

2.45

Odisha

1.86

ATK Mohun Bagan creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

2.15

creates per match

2.50

1.23

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

ATK Mohun Bagan

2.15

Odisha

2.50

allows per match

ATK Mohun Bagan

1.23

Odisha

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Odisha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATK Mohun Bagan ↓

Odisha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

ATK Mohun Bagan or draw

70%

ATK Mohun Bagan or Odisha

81%

Draw or Odisha

49%

Winning margin

ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+

31%

Odisha wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals

91%

ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals

70%

ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals

44%

Odisha 1+ goals

84%

Odisha 2+ goals

55%

Odisha 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)

63%

Odisha (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATK Mohun Bagan at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Odisha away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 2.15 + Odisha defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.45

Odisha attack 2.50 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

ATK Mohun Bagan scores more

51%

level

19%

Odisha scores more

30%

ATK Mohun Bagan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "ATK Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff