ATK Mohun Bagan 3–1 East Bengal: Result & Stats

ATK Mohun Bagan

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

East Bengal

2/19/2021

Indian Super League · Round 20Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

ATK Mohun Bagan55%

×Draw23%

East Bengal21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ATK Mohun BaganExpected goals in this matchEast Bengal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.00

ATK Mohun Bagan

1.76

East Bengal

1.00

ATK Mohun Bagan creates 76% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 53 away

1.82

creates per match

1.11

0.88

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

ATK Mohun Bagan

1.82

East Bengal

1.11

allows per match

ATK Mohun Bagan

0.88

East Bengal

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

East Bengal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATK Mohun Bagan ↓

East Bengal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

ATK Mohun Bagan or draw

79%

ATK Mohun Bagan or East Bengal

77%

Draw or East Bengal

45%

Winning margin

ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+

31%

East Bengal wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals

83%

ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals

52%

ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals

26%

East Bengal 1+ goals

63%

East Bengal 2+ goals

26%

East Bengal 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)

72%

East Bengal (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATK Mohun Bagan at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.88 · 68 matches

East Bengal away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 1.82 + East Bengal defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.76

East Bengal attack 1.11 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

ATK Mohun Bagan scores more

55%

level

23%

East Bengal scores more

21%

ATK Mohun Bagan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "ATK Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff