Athlone Town 2–3 Wexford: Result & Stats

Athlone Town

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Wexford

K. Robinson 26' (pen)

L. Gaxha 17'

C. Curtis 74'

K. Corbally 66'

A. Dobbs 59'

8/12/2024

First Division · Round 20Athlone Town Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Athlone Town39%

×Draw24%

Wexford36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athlone TownExpected goals in this matchWexford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.46

Athlone Town

1.53

Wexford

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 118 away

1.34

creates per match

1.19

1.73

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Athlone Town

1.34

Wexford

1.19

allows per match

Athlone Town

1.73

Wexford

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athlone Town+0.00on par

Wexford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athlone Town ↓

Wexford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Athlone Town or draw

64%

Athlone Town or Wexford

76%

Draw or Wexford

61%

Winning margin

Athlone Town wins by 2+

19%

Wexford wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Athlone Town 1+ goals

78%

Athlone Town 2+ goals

45%

Athlone Town 3+ goals

20%

Wexford 1+ goals

77%

Wexford 2+ goals

43%

Wexford 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Athlone Town (draw refunded)

52%

Wexford (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athlone Town at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.73 · 118 matches

Wexford away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.72 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athlone Town attack 1.34 + Wexford defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.53

Wexford attack 1.19 + Athlone Town defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Athlone Town scores more

39%

level

24%

Wexford scores more

36%

Athlone Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Athlone Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

L. Gaxha

24'

D. Levingston

26'

K. RobinsonPenalty

46'

A. Dobbs← L. Lovic

59'

A. Connolly← L. Gaxha

59'

59'

61'

66'

66'

66'

68'

69'

R. Webb← M. Rowe

74'

C. Curtis

77'

B. Lynch← J. Crawford

82'

O. Duffy

86'

D. Ebbe

90+4'

N. van Geenen

Athlone

Wexford

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Gaxha

⚽

▼

Robinson

Manager: Dário Castelo

59'▲A. Connolly←▼L. Gaxha

59'▲D. Ebbe←▼K. Robinson

66'▲D. McKenna←▼M. Leal

66'▲G. Tetteh←▼A. Oakley

68'▲O. Duffy←▼M. McHugh

Athlone Town substitutes

ConnollyEbbeMcKennaTettehDuffyByrneAxworthyRubinsteinForbes

Manager: J. Keddy

46'▲A. Dobbs←▼L. Lovic

61'▲C. Curtis←▼T. Oluwa

69'▲R. Webb←▼M. Rowe

77'▲B. Lynch←▼J. Crawford

Wexford substitutes

DobbsCurtisWebbLynchLennonMoodyO'MalleyHarnett

First Division: Athlone Town 2–3 Wexford

Wexford beat Athlone Town 3-2 in First Division on August 12, 2024.

Goals: L. Gaxha (17'), K. Robinson (26' pen), A. Dobbs (59'), K. Corbally (66'), C. Curtis (74').

The match was played at Athlone Town Stadium in Athlone.

Athlone Town vs Wexford — First Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First Division: Athlone Town 2–3 Wexford