Athletic Club W 2–2 Valencia W: Result & Stats

Athletic Club W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Valencia W

10/27/2018

Primera División Femenina · Round 7Estadio Santa María de Lezama (Lezama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Athletic Club W52%

×Draw24%

Valencia W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic Club WExpected goals in this matchValencia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.05

Athletic Club W

1.69

Valencia W

1.05

Athletic Club W creates 61% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 105 away

1.47

creates per match

0.94

1.17

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Athletic Club W

1.47

Valencia W

0.94

allows per match

Athletic Club W

1.17

Valencia W

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic Club W+0.00on par

Valencia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club W ↓

Valencia W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Athletic Club W or draw

76%

Athletic Club W or Valencia W

76%

Draw or Valencia W

48%

Winning margin

Athletic Club W wins by 2+

28%

Valencia W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Athletic Club W 1+ goals

82%

Athletic Club W 2+ goals

50%

Athletic Club W 3+ goals

24%

Valencia W 1+ goals

65%

Valencia W 2+ goals

28%

Valencia W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club W (draw refunded)

69%

Valencia W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club W at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

Valencia W away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club W attack 1.47 + Valencia W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.69

Valencia W attack 0.94 + Athletic Club W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Athletic Club W scores more

52%

level

24%

Valencia W scores more

24%

Athletic Club W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Athletic Club W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff