Athletic Club W 3–0 Madrid CFF W: Result & Stats

Athletic Club W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Madrid CFF W

12/1/2018

Primera División Femenina · Round 11Estadio Santa María de Lezama (Lezama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Athletic Club W49%

×Draw23%

Madrid CFF W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic Club WExpected goals in this matchMadrid CFF W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.30

Athletic Club W

1.80

Madrid CFF W

1.30

Athletic Club W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 119 away

1.47

creates per match

1.44

1.17

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Athletic Club W

1.47

Madrid CFF W

1.44

allows per match

Athletic Club W

1.17

Madrid CFF W

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic Club W+0.00on par

Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club W ↓

Madrid CFF W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Athletic Club W or draw

72%

Athletic Club W or Madrid CFF W

77%

Draw or Madrid CFF W

51%

Winning margin

Athletic Club W wins by 2+

27%

Madrid CFF W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Athletic Club W 1+ goals

83%

Athletic Club W 2+ goals

54%

Athletic Club W 3+ goals

27%

Madrid CFF W 1+ goals

73%

Madrid CFF W 2+ goals

37%

Madrid CFF W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club W (draw refunded)

64%

Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club W at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

Madrid CFF W away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club W attack 1.47 + Madrid CFF W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.80

Madrid CFF W attack 1.44 + Athletic Club W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Athletic Club W scores more

49%

level

23%

Madrid CFF W scores more

28%

Athletic Club W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Athletic Club W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff