Athletic Club W 0–1 Granad. Tenerife W

Athletic Club W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Granad. Tenerife W

2/4/2023

Primera División Femenina · Round 18Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Athletic Club W45%

×Draw25%

Granad. Tenerife W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic Club WExpected goals in this matchGranad. Tenerife W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.19

Athletic Club W

1.52

Granad. Tenerife W

1.19

Athletic Club W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 117 away

1.47

creates per match

1.21

1.17

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Athletic Club W

1.47

Granad. Tenerife W

1.21

allows per match

Athletic Club W

1.17

Granad. Tenerife W

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic Club W+0.00on par

Granad. Tenerife W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club W ↓

Granad. Tenerife W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Athletic Club W or draw

70%

Athletic Club W or Granad. Tenerife W

75%

Draw or Granad. Tenerife W

55%

Winning margin

Athletic Club W wins by 2+

22%

Granad. Tenerife W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Athletic Club W 1+ goals

78%

Athletic Club W 2+ goals

45%

Athletic Club W 3+ goals

20%

Granad. Tenerife W 1+ goals

70%

Granad. Tenerife W 2+ goals

33%

Granad. Tenerife W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club W (draw refunded)

60%

Granad. Tenerife W (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club W at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

Granad. Tenerife W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.58 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club W attack 1.47 + Granad. Tenerife W defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Granad. Tenerife W attack 1.21 + Athletic Club W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Athletic Club W scores more

45%

level

25%

Granad. Tenerife W scores more

30%

Athletic Club W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Athletic Club W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff