Athletic Club W vs Eibar W: Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club W

Preview

15:00

Eibar W

5/9/2027

Primera División Femenina · Round 28Lezama Facilities

Big match

53%

Athletic Club W

model favours

53%25%23%

Athletic Club W have won 8 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

52%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Athletic Club W53%

×Draw25%

Eibar W23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic Club WExpected goals in this matchEibar W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.97

Athletic Club W

1.62

Eibar W

0.97

Athletic Club W creates 67% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 77 away

1.47

creates per match

0.78

1.17

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Athletic Club W

1.47

Eibar W

0.78

allows per match

Athletic Club W

1.17

Eibar W

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic Club W+0.00on par

Eibar W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club W ↓

Eibar W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Athletic Club W or draw

77%

Athletic Club W or Eibar W

75%

Draw or Eibar W

47%

Winning margin

Athletic Club W wins by 2+

28%

Eibar W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Athletic Club W 1+ goals

80%

Athletic Club W 2+ goals

48%

Athletic Club W 3+ goals

22%

Eibar W 1+ goals

62%

Eibar W 2+ goals

25%

Eibar W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club W (draw refunded)

70%

Eibar W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club W at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

Eibar W away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.77 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club W attack 1.47 + Eibar W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.62

Eibar W attack 0.78 + Athletic Club W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Athletic Club W scores more

53%

level

25%

Eibar W scores more

23%

Athletic Club W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Athletic Club W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Eibar W win just 11% against the top half (vs 45% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Athletic Club W

Balanced

Eibar W

Direct / counter-attacking

54%PossessionBiggest gap33%

80%Pass accuracy58%

8.5Shots9.0

—xG—

Athletic Club WEibar W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

8

Athletic Club W

0

Draws

2

Eibar W

Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 40%

1–02–00–12–12–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

W

WWLWL

W

WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Athletic Club W vs Eibar W — Match Preview

Athletic Club W face Eibar W on May 9, 2027 in this Primera División Femenina fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Athletic Club W host Eibar W at Lezama Facilities.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Athletic Club W vs Eibar W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Athletic Club W vs Eibar W — Match Preview