Athletic Club W vs Edf Logrono W

Athletic Club W

Preview

16:00

Edf Logrono W

3/14/2027

Primera División Femenina · Round 22Lezama Facilities

Big match

54%

Athletic Club W

model favours

54%24%22%

Athletic Club W have won 5 of the last 7 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

over 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Athletic Club W54%

×Draw24%

Edf Logrono W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic Club WExpected goals in this matchEdf Logrono W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.04

Athletic Club W

1.75

Edf Logrono W

1.04

Athletic Club W creates 68% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 57 away

1.47

creates per match

0.91

1.17

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Athletic Club W

1.47

Edf Logrono W

0.91

allows per match

Athletic Club W

1.17

Edf Logrono W

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic Club W+0.00on par

Edf Logrono W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club W ↓

Edf Logrono W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Athletic Club W or draw

78%

Athletic Club W or Edf Logrono W

76%

Draw or Edf Logrono W

46%

Winning margin

Athletic Club W wins by 2+

30%

Edf Logrono W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Athletic Club W 1+ goals

83%

Athletic Club W 2+ goals

52%

Athletic Club W 3+ goals

25%

Edf Logrono W 1+ goals

65%

Edf Logrono W 2+ goals

28%

Edf Logrono W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club W (draw refunded)

71%

Edf Logrono W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club W at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

Edf Logrono W away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club W attack 1.47 + Edf Logrono W defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.75

Edf Logrono W attack 0.91 + Athletic Club W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Athletic Club W scores more

54%

level

24%

Edf Logrono W scores more

22%

Athletic Club W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Athletic Club W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Edf Logrono W win just 7% against the top half (vs 36% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

W

WWLWL

W

LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff