Athletic Club W vs Deportivo Alavés W

Athletic Club W

Preview

16:00

Deportivo Alavés W

12/9/2026

Primera División Femenina · Round 13Lezama Facilities

63%

Athletic Club W

model favours

63%20%17%

Athletic Club W have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

62%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Athletic Club W63%

×Draw20%

Deportivo Alavés W17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic Club WExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Alavés W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.05

Athletic Club W

2.17

Deportivo Alavés W

1.05

Athletic Club W creates 107% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 30 away

1.47

creates per match

0.93

1.17

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Athletic Club W

1.47

Deportivo Alavés W

0.93

allows per match

Athletic Club W

1.17

Deportivo Alavés W

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic Club W+0.00on par

Deportivo Alavés W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club W ↓

Deportivo Alavés W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Athletic Club W or draw

83%

Athletic Club W or Deportivo Alavés W

80%

Draw or Deportivo Alavés W

37%

Winning margin

Athletic Club W wins by 2+

39%

Deportivo Alavés W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Athletic Club W 1+ goals

89%

Athletic Club W 2+ goals

64%

Athletic Club W 3+ goals

36%

Deportivo Alavés W 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Alavés W 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo Alavés W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club W (draw refunded)

78%

Deportivo Alavés W (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club W at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

Deportivo Alavés W away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club W attack 1.47 + Deportivo Alavés W defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.17

Deportivo Alavés W attack 0.93 + Athletic Club W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Athletic Club W scores more

63%

level

20%

Deportivo Alavés W scores more

17%

Athletic Club W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Athletic Club W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Deportivo Alavés W win just 3% against the top half (vs 43% against the bottom)
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

W

WWLWL

W

DDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff