Athletic Club W 2–4 Atletico Madrid W

Athletic Club W

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico Madrid W

9/22/2018

Primera División Femenina · Round 3Estadio Santa María de Lezama (Lezama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Athletic Club W31%

×Draw25%

Atletico Madrid W44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic Club WExpected goals in this matchAtletico Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.54

Athletic Club W

1.25

Atletico Madrid W

1.54

Atletico Madrid W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 118 away

1.47

creates per match

1.92

1.17

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Athletic Club W

1.47

Atletico Madrid W

1.92

allows per match

Athletic Club W

1.17

Atletico Madrid W

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic Club W+0.00on par

Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club W ↓

Atletico Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Athletic Club W or draw

56%

Athletic Club W or Atletico Madrid W

75%

Draw or Atletico Madrid W

69%

Winning margin

Athletic Club W wins by 2+

13%

Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Athletic Club W 1+ goals

71%

Athletic Club W 2+ goals

36%

Athletic Club W 3+ goals

13%

Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals

79%

Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals

45%

Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club W (draw refunded)

41%

Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club W at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

Atletico Madrid W away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.02 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club W attack 1.47 + Atletico Madrid W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atletico Madrid W attack 1.92 + Athletic Club W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Athletic Club W scores more

31%

level

25%

Atletico Madrid W scores more

44%

Atletico Madrid W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atletico Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff