Athletic Club vs São Bernardo — Serie B 2026
Serie B · Round 19
77% of Athletic Club’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
Athletic Club26%São Bernardo48%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
São Bernardo creates 45% more chances
Season form · 28 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Athletic Club ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Athletic Club at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches
São Bernardo away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Athletic Club attack 1.04 + São Bernardo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02
São Bernardo attack 1.75 + Athletic Club defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.48
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
São Bernardo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "São Bernardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- São Bernardo score first in only 30% of matches
- Both teams score in 77% of Athletic Club’s matches
- 70% of São Bernardo’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Atletico Goianiense
Avai
BOA
Brasil DE Pelotas
CRB
CSA
Coritiba
Criciuma
Figueirense
Fortaleza EC
Goias
Guarani Campinas
Juventude
Londrina
Oeste
Paysandu
Ponte Preta
Sampaio Correa
Sao Bento
Vila NovaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Athletic Club host São Bernardo on Thursday, 23 July 2026 at 22:30. The match is part of the Serie B 2026/2027 season.
Athletic Club face São Bernardo (Serie B)
Serie B returns with Athletic Club hosting São Bernardo. Match starts July 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.