Athletic Club 2–1 Levante: Result & Stats | La Liga

Athletic Club

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Levante

11/10/2019

La Liga · Round 13San Mamés Barria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Athletic Club50%

×Draw25%

Levante25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic ClubExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.02

Athletic Club

1.56

Levante

1.02

Athletic Club creates 53% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

1.41

creates per match

1.18

0.87

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Athletic Club

1.41

Levante

1.18

allows per match

Athletic Club

0.87

Levante

1.71

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Athletic Club-0.15scores less

Levante-0.07on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Athletic Club or draw

75%

Athletic Club or Levante

75%

Draw or Levante

50%

Winning margin

Athletic Club wins by 2+

26%

Levante wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Athletic Club 1+ goals

79%

Athletic Club 2+ goals

46%

Athletic Club 3+ goals

21%

Levante 1+ goals

64%

Levante 2+ goals

27%

Levante 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club (draw refunded)

67%

Levante (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Levante away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club attack 1.41 + Levante defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Levante attack 1.18 + Athletic Club defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Athletic Club scores more

50%

level

25%

Levante scores more

25%

Athletic Club at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Athletic Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff