Athletic Club 1–0 Elche: Result & Stats | La Liga

Athletic Club

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Elche

Muniain 25'

1/3/2021

La Liga · Round 17San Mamés Barria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Athletic Club54%

×Draw25%

Elche20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic ClubExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.86

Athletic Club

1.58

Elche

0.86

Athletic Club creates 84% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 27 away

1.42

creates per match

0.71

1.02

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Athletic Club

1.42

Elche

0.71

allows per match

Athletic Club

1.02

Elche

1.75

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Athletic Club-0.20scores less

Elche+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Athletic Club or draw

80%

Athletic Club or Elche

75%

Draw or Elche

46%

Winning margin

Athletic Club wins by 2+

29%

Elche wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Athletic Club 1+ goals

79%

Athletic Club 2+ goals

47%

Athletic Club 3+ goals

21%

Elche 1+ goals

58%

Elche 2+ goals

21%

Elche 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club (draw refunded)

73%

Elche (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.02 · 32 matches

Elche away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.75 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club attack 1.42 + Elche defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.58

Elche attack 0.71 + Athletic Club defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Athletic Club scores more

54%

level

25%

Elche scores more

20%

Athletic Club at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Athletic Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

De Marcos

Athletic Club · D

8.0

Match Events

25'

Muniain↳ De Marcos

36'

Unai Vencedor

44'

Antonio Barragán

46'

Josan Ferrández← Pere Milla

46'

L. Boyé← G. Carrillo

46'

Víctor Rodríguez← J. Sánchez

50'

Yuri Berchiche

66'

Dani García← Unai Vencedor

66'

Oihan Sancet← Álex Berenguer

66'

E. Rigoni← Tete Morente

78'

Nino← Raúl Guti

82'

Lekue← Muniain

82'

Asier Villalibre← Williams

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AthleticElche

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots5

5Corners4

15Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots5

2On Target2

7Off Target2

4Blocked1

6Inside Box2

7Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

435Total Passes443

365Accurate Passes367

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

5Offsides0