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Athletic Club II vs Pontevedra — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
Preview
15:00
Pontevedra
Pontevedra
3/28/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Lezama Facilities
42%
Athletic Club II
model favours
42%29%29%

Athletic Club II raise their game against the top half — 34% wins vs the upper half, only 33% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Athletic Club II42%
×Draw29%
Pontevedra29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletic Club II
1.24
Pontevedra
0.99

Athletic Club II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 65 away

creates per match

Athletic Club II
1.12
Pontevedra
1.00

allows per match

Athletic Club II
0.98
Pontevedra
1.35

finishing

Athletic Club II+0.00on par
Pontevedra+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club II ↓

Pontevedra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Athletic Club II or draw
71%
Athletic Club II or Pontevedra
71%
Draw or Pontevedra
58%

Winning margin

Athletic Club II wins by 2+
19%
Pontevedra wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Athletic Club II 1+ goals
71%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
35%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
13%
Pontevedra 1+ goals
63%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
26%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
59%
Pontevedra (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

Pontevedra away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club II attack 1.12 + Pontevedra defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Pontevedra attack 1.00 + Athletic Club II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Athletic Club II scores more
42%
level
29%
Pontevedra scores more
29%

Athletic Club II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
II
LWLDD
Pontevedra
DLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Athletic Club II face Pontevedra (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Athletic Club II hosting Pontevedra. Match starts March 28, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Athletic Club II host Pontevedra at Lezama Facilities.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.