Atalanta 3–2 Udinese: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atalanta

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Udinese

4/3/2021

Serie A · Round 29Gewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Atalanta55%

×Draw24%

Udinese21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchUdinese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.96

Atalanta

1.72

Udinese

0.96

Atalanta creates 79% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 28 away

1.87

creates per match

1.09

0.83

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Atalanta

1.87

Udinese

1.09

allows per match

Atalanta

0.83

Udinese

1.56

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Atalanta-0.15scores less

Udinese+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Udinese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

79%

Atalanta or Udinese

76%

Draw or Udinese

45%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

31%

Udinese wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

82%

Atalanta 2+ goals

51%

Atalanta 3+ goals

25%

Udinese 1+ goals

62%

Udinese 2+ goals

25%

Udinese 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

72%

Udinese (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.83 · 25 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.56 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.87 + Udinese defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.72

Udinese attack 1.09 + Atalanta defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atalanta scores more

55%

level

24%

Udinese scores more

21%

Atalanta at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff