Atalanta 4–1 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atalanta

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Sassuolo

D. Zapata 66', 31'

M. Bourabia 37' (OG)

B. Djimsiti 16'

M. Bourabia 90+2'

6/21/2020

Serie A · Round 25Gewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Atalanta54%

×Draw24%

Sassuolo22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.02

Atalanta

1.75

Sassuolo

1.02

Atalanta creates 72% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 34 away

1.86

creates per match

1.23

0.81

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Atalanta

1.86

Sassuolo

1.23

allows per match

Atalanta

0.81

Sassuolo

1.64

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Atalanta-0.15scores less

Sassuolo+0.01on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

78%

Atalanta or Sassuolo

76%

Draw or Sassuolo

46%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

30%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

83%

Atalanta 2+ goals

52%

Atalanta 3+ goals

25%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

64%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

27%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

71%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 28 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.64 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.86 + Sassuolo defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sassuolo attack 1.23 + Atalanta defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atalanta scores more

54%

level

24%

Sassuolo scores more

22%

Atalanta at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91

Duván Zapata

Atalanta · F

8.5

Match Events

9'

J. Toljan

16'

B. Djimsiti↳ M. Caldara

31'

D. Zapata

37'

M. BourabiaOwn goal

40'

M. Pasalic

45+2'

F. Peluso

46'

J. Toljan← M. Muldur

60'

D. Berardi← F. Djuricic

61'

65'

66'

69'

69'

R. Gosens← T. Castagne

69'

Marlon← G. Magnani

70'

R. Freuler← R. Malinovsky

73'

Gasperini G.

75'

B. Djimsiti

77'

M. Locatelli← P. Obiang

82'

L. Muriel

86'

B. Djimsiti← R. Toloi

88'

A. Gomez← E. Colley

90+1'

R. Toloi

90+2'

M. Bourabia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtalantaSassuolo

Overview

46%Possession54%

13Total Shots14

4Corners3

23Fouls6

Shots

13Total Shots14

4On Target5

8Off Target5

1Blocked4

11Inside Box10

2Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

445Total Passes527

362Accurate Passes442

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

23Fouls6

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Serie A: Atalanta 4–1 Sassuolo

Atalanta beat Sassuolo 4-1 in Serie A on June 21, 2020.

Goals: B. Djimsiti (16'), D. Zapata (31', 66'), M. Bourabia (37' o.g., 90+2').

Sassuolo controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo.

Atalanta vs Sassuolo — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Atalanta 4–1 Sassuolo