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Atalanta vs Napoli — Serie A 2026

Atalanta
Atalanta
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Napoli
Napoli
2/21/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 23Gewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Atalanta44%
×Draw26%
Napoli29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atalanta
1.42
Napoli
1.11

Atalanta creates 28% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 23 away

creates per match

Atalanta
1.92
Napoli
1.41

allows per match

Atalanta
0.82
Napoli
0.92

finishing

Atalanta-0.19scores less
Napoli+0.02on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Napoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw
71%
Atalanta or Napoli
74%
Draw or Napoli
56%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+
21%
Napoli wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals
76%
Atalanta 2+ goals
41%
Atalanta 3+ goals
17%
Napoli 1+ goals
67%
Napoli 2+ goals
30%
Napoli 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)
60%
Napoli (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.82 · 26 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.92 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.92 + Napoli defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.42

Napoli attack 1.41 + Atalanta defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atalanta scores more
44%
level
26%
Napoli scores more
29%

Atalanta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atalanta vs Napoli

Atalanta beat Napoli 4-2 in Serie A on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo.