Atalanta 2–0 Napoli: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atalanta

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Napoli

R. Gosens 56'

M. Pasalic 47'

7/2/2020

Serie A · Round 29Gewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Atalanta42%

×Draw27%

Napoli31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.13

Atalanta

1.36

Napoli

1.13

Atalanta creates 20% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 34 away

1.81

creates per match

1.42

0.84

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Atalanta

1.81

Napoli

1.42

allows per match

Atalanta

0.84

Napoli

0.91

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Atalanta-0.11scores less

Napoli+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

69%

Atalanta or Napoli

73%

Draw or Napoli

58%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

20%

Napoli wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

74%

Atalanta 2+ goals

39%

Atalanta 3+ goals

16%

Napoli 1+ goals

68%

Napoli 2+ goals

31%

Napoli 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

57%

Napoli (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.84 · 30 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.81 + Napoli defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.36

Napoli attack 1.42 + Atalanta defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atalanta scores more

42%

level

27%

Napoli scores more

31%

Atalanta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

95

Pierluigi Gollini

Atalanta · G

8.5

Match Events

30'

D. Ospina← A. Meret

47'

M. Pasalic↳ A. Gomez

56'

R. Gosens↳ R. Toloi

57'

D. Mertens← H. Lozano

58'

L. Insigne← A. Milik

67'

M. Rui

72'

M. Caldara← J. Palomino

73'

M. Politano← J. Callejon

73'

D. Demme← S. Lobotka

81'

B. Djimsiti← H. Hateboer

88'

R. Toloi

88'

A. Gomez← L. Muriel

88'

M. Pasalic← A. Tameze

89'

R. Toloi← B. Sutalo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtalantaNapoli

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots15

5Corners5

17Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots15

3On Target7

4Off Target7

2Blocked1

6Inside Box6

3Outside Box9

Passing

46%Possession54%

514Total Passes591

442Accurate Passes526

86%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2