Atalanta 1–2 Napoli: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atalanta

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Napoli

D. Zapata 56'

A. Milik 85'

Fabián Ruiz 2'

12/3/2018

Serie A · Round 14Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Atalanta42%

×Draw27%

Napoli31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.13

Atalanta

1.35

Napoli

1.13

Atalanta creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 32 away

1.81

creates per match

1.42

0.84

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Atalanta

1.81

Napoli

1.42

allows per match

Atalanta

0.84

Napoli

0.89

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Atalanta-0.11scores less

Napoli+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

69%

Atalanta or Napoli

73%

Draw or Napoli

58%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

19%

Napoli wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

74%

Atalanta 2+ goals

39%

Atalanta 3+ goals

15%

Napoli 1+ goals

68%

Napoli 2+ goals

31%

Napoli 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

57%

Napoli (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.84 · 30 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.89 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.81 + Napoli defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.35

Napoli attack 1.42 + Atalanta defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atalanta scores more

42%

level

27%

Napoli scores more

31%

Atalanta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Gómez

Atalanta · F

7.9

Match Events

2'

Fabián Ruiz↳ L. Insigne

14'

Allan

56'

D. Zapata↳ H. Hateboer

61'

Andrea Masiello

71'

L. Valzania← E. Rigoni

77'

P. Zieliński← Fabián Ruiz

77'

E. Hysaj← N. Maksimović

78'

Mário Rui

82'

A. Milik← D. Mertens

85'

A. Milik↳ Mário Rui

89'

M. Tumminello← G. Mancini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtalantaNapoli

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots10

12Corners6

8Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots10

2On Target6

8Off Target4

4Blocked0

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

584Total Passes488

491Accurate Passes386

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides4