Atalanta 3–1 Lecce: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atalanta

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Lecce

Robin Gosens 56'

Alejandro Gómez 40'

Duván Zapata 35'

Fabio Lucioni 86'

10/6/2019

Serie A · Round 7Gewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Atalanta59%

×Draw24%

Lecce17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchLecce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.78

Atalanta

1.69

Lecce

0.78

Atalanta creates 117% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 34 away

1.81

creates per match

0.73

0.84

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Atalanta

1.81

Lecce

0.73

allows per match

Atalanta

0.84

Lecce

1.57

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Atalanta-0.11scores less

Lecce-0.20scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Lecce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

83%

Atalanta or Lecce

76%

Draw or Lecce

41%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

33%

Lecce wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

82%

Atalanta 2+ goals

50%

Atalanta 3+ goals

24%

Lecce 1+ goals

54%

Lecce 2+ goals

18%

Lecce 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

78%

Lecce (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.84 · 30 matches

Lecce away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.81 + Lecce defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Lecce attack 0.73 + Atalanta defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Atalanta scores more

59%

level

24%

Lecce scores more

17%

Atalanta at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Alejandro Gómez

Atalanta · F

9.1

Match Events

35'

Duván Zapata

40'

Alejandro Gómez↳ Duván Zapata

55'

Diego Farias← Jacopo Petriccione

56'

Robin Gosens↳ Josip Iličić

59'

Luis Muriel← Duván Zapata

60'

Khouma Babacar← Andrea La Mantia

62'

Fabio Lucioni

63'

Simon Kjær

69'

Rafael Tolói← Simon Kjær

73'

Marten de Roon

74'

Ruslan Malinovskyi← Josip Iličić

84'

Žan Majer

86'

Fabio Lucioni↳ Filippo Falco

86'

Brayan Vera← Giannelli Imbula

89'

Andrea Rispoli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtalantaLecce

Overview

57%Possession43%

30Total Shots7

9Corners5

15Fouls13

Shots

30Total Shots7

15On Target2

14Off Target2

1Blocked3

23Inside Box4

7Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

573Total Passes409

499Accurate Passes330

87%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves12

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2