Atalanta 0–2 Lazio: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atalanta

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lazio

Felipe Anderson 52'

M. Zaccagni 10'

10/23/2022

Serie A · Round 11Gewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Atalanta52%

×Draw25%

Lazio23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchLazio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.95

Atalanta

1.59

Lazio

0.95

Atalanta creates 67% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.92

creates per match

1.08

0.82

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Atalanta

1.92

Lazio

1.08

allows per match

Atalanta

0.82

Lazio

1.26

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Atalanta-0.19scores less

Lazio-0.04on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Lazio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

77%

Atalanta or Lazio

75%

Draw or Lazio

48%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

28%

Lazio wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

80%

Atalanta 2+ goals

47%

Atalanta 3+ goals

21%

Lazio 1+ goals

61%

Lazio 2+ goals

25%

Lazio 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

70%

Lazio (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.82 · 26 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.92 + Lazio defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.59

Lazio attack 1.08 + Atalanta defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atalanta scores more

52%

level

25%

Lazio scores more

23%

Atalanta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Felipe Anderson

Lazio · F

7.9

Match Events

10'

M. Zaccagni↳ Pedro

12'

Caleb Okoli

45+1'

Brandon Soppy

46'

B. Djimsiti← C. Okoli

46'

R. Malinovskyi← M. Pašalić

52'

Felipe Anderson↳ A. Marušić

58'

64'

70'

70'

71'

D. Zapata← A. Lookman

75'

Éderson← M. de Roon

77'

E. Hysaj← M. Lazzari

84'

M. Cancellieri← Pedro

88'

Sergej Milinković-Savić

90'

Luis Muriel

90'

Luis Muriel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtalantaLazio

Overview

47%Possession53%

7Total Shots12

5Corners8

15Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots12

0On Target5

4Off Target5

3Blocked2

5Inside Box5

2Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

480Total Passes562

400Accurate Passes489

83%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls9

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0