Atalanta 1–3 Juventus: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atalanta

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Juventus

Robin Gosens 56'

Paulo Dybala 90'

Gonzalo Higuaín 82', 74'

11/23/2019

Serie A · Round 13Gewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Atalanta43%

×Draw26%

Juventus31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchJuventus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.16

Atalanta

1.41

Juventus

1.16

Atalanta creates 22% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 34 away

1.81

creates per match

1.47

0.84

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Atalanta

1.81

Juventus

1.47

allows per match

Atalanta

0.84

Juventus

1.01

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Atalanta-0.11scores less

Juventus-0.09on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Juventus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

69%

Atalanta or Juventus

74%

Draw or Juventus

57%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

20%

Juventus wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

76%

Atalanta 2+ goals

41%

Atalanta 3+ goals

17%

Juventus 1+ goals

69%

Juventus 2+ goals

32%

Juventus 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

58%

Juventus (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.84 · 30 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.81 + Juventus defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.41

Juventus attack 1.47 + Atalanta defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atalanta scores more

43%

level

26%

Juventus scores more

31%

Atalanta at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Gonzalo Higuaín

Juventus · F

8.8

Match Events

7'

Gonzalo Higuaín

10'

José Luis Palomino

17'

Musa BarrowMissed penalty

26'

Aaron Ramsey← Federico Bernardeschi

27'

41'

45'

45'

56'

Robin Gosens↳ Musa Barrow

57'

Luis Muriel← Musa Barrow

58'

Douglas Costa← Rodrigo Bentancur

61'

Rafael Tolói

70'

Emre Can← Sami Khedira

71'

Timothy Castagne← Robin Gosens

74'

Gonzalo Higuaín

82'

Pierluigi Gollini

82'

Gonzalo Higuaín↳ Juan Cuadrado

85'

Amad Traoré← Remo Freuler

90'

Paulo Dybala↳ Gonzalo Higuaín

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtalantaJuventus

Overview

47%Possession53%

22Total Shots16

8Corners3

16Fouls13

Shots

22Total Shots16

8On Target5

7Off Target8

7Blocked3

16Inside Box6

6Outside Box10

Passing

47%Possession53%

414Total Passes488

328Accurate Passes400

79%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls13

5Yellow Cards3