Atalanta 1–1 Inter: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atalanta

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Inter

A. Miranchuk 79'

L. Martínez 58'

11/8/2020

Serie A · Round 7Gewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Atalanta42%

×Draw25%

Inter33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchInter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.27

Atalanta

1.47

Inter

1.27

Atalanta creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 35 away

1.81

creates per match

1.70

0.84

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Atalanta

1.81

Inter

1.70

allows per match

Atalanta

0.84

Inter

1.13

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

Atalanta-0.11scores less

Inter+0.27scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Inter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

67%

Atalanta or Inter

75%

Draw or Inter

58%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

20%

Inter wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

77%

Atalanta 2+ goals

43%

Atalanta 3+ goals

18%

Inter 1+ goals

72%

Inter 2+ goals

36%

Inter 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

56%

Inter (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.84 · 30 matches

Inter away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.81 + Inter defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.47

Inter attack 1.70 + Atalanta defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atalanta scores more

42%

level

25%

Inter scores more

33%

Atalanta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

C. Romero

Atalanta · D

7.6

Match Events

30'

Lautaro Martínez

33'

Berat Djimsiti

44'

Stefan de Vrij

58'

L. Martínez↳ A. Young

59'

M. Pessina← M. Pašalić

59'

A. Miranchuk← R. Malinovskyi

69'

Arturo Vidal

70'

R. Gagliardini← A. Vidal

73'

L. Muriel← R. Tolói

73'

S. Lammers← D. Zapata

74'

R. Lukaku← L. Martínez

74'

I. Perišić← A. Sánchez

79'

A. Miranchuk↳ L. Muriel

83'

D. D'Ambrosio← A. Young

83'

A. Hakimi← M. Darmian

90'

J. Mojica← M. Ruggeri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtalantaInter

Overview

52%Possession48%

9Total Shots10

2Corners5

15Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots10

2On Target3

4Off Target5

3Blocked2

4Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

544Total Passes490

483Accurate Passes422

89%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0