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Atalanta vs Genoa — Serie A 2018

Atalanta
Atalanta
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Genoa
Genoa
1/17/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 18Gewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Atalanta54%
×Draw24%
Genoa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atalanta
1.67
Genoa
0.94

Atalanta creates 78% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

creates per match

Atalanta
1.87
Genoa
1.04

allows per match

Atalanta
0.83
Genoa
1.47

finishing

Atalanta-0.15scores less
Genoa-0.11scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw
79%
Atalanta or Genoa
76%
Draw or Genoa
46%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+
30%
Genoa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals
81%
Atalanta 2+ goals
50%
Atalanta 3+ goals
23%
Genoa 1+ goals
61%
Genoa 2+ goals
24%
Genoa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)
72%
Genoa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.83 · 25 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.87 + Genoa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.67

Genoa attack 1.04 + Atalanta defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atalanta scores more
54%
level
24%
Genoa scores more
21%

Atalanta at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Atalanta 0–0 Genoa

Atalanta and Genoa drew 0-0 in Serie A on January 17, 2021.

The match was played at Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo.