Atalanta 3–1 Fiorentina: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atalanta

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Fiorentina

R. Gosens 59'

A. Gómez 34'

J. Iličić 28'

L. Muriel 3'

3/3/2019

Serie A · Round 26Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Atalanta53%

×Draw25%

Fiorentina23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.98

Atalanta

1.64

Fiorentina

0.98

Atalanta creates 67% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 33 away

1.81

creates per match

1.12

0.84

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Atalanta

1.81

Fiorentina

1.12

allows per match

Atalanta

0.84

Fiorentina

1.47

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atalanta-0.11scores less

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

77%

Atalanta or Fiorentina

75%

Draw or Fiorentina

47%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

28%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

81%

Atalanta 2+ goals

49%

Atalanta 3+ goals

23%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

62%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

26%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

70%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.84 · 30 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.81 + Fiorentina defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.64

Fiorentina attack 1.12 + Atalanta defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atalanta scores more

53%

level

25%

Fiorentina scores more

23%

Atalanta at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Gómez

Atalanta · F

9.2

Match Events

3'

L. Muriel

6'

Federico Ceccherini

28'

J. Iličić↳ R. Freuler

34'

A. Gómez↳ R. Freuler

35'

Andrea Masiello

41'

Remo Freuler

49'

J. Palomino← A. Masiello

59'

R. Gosens↳ T. Castagne

65'

B. Dabo← V. Laurini

65'

Vitor Hugo← G. Pezzella

68'

Marten de Roon

73'

M. Pašalić← D. Zapata

81'

Jordan Veretout

85'

M. Pjaca← F. Ceccherini

86'

José Luis Palomino

88'

H. Hateboer← R. Freuler

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtalantaFiorentina

Overview

59%Possession41%

20Total Shots10

8Corners5

9Fouls16

Shots

20Total Shots10

11On Target3

8Off Target3

1Blocked4

13Inside Box5

7Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

431Total Passes291

344Accurate Passes193

80%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

9Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1