Atalanta 1–2 Cagliari: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atalanta

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Cagliari

2/6/2022

Serie A · Round 24Gewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Atalanta57%

×Draw24%

Cagliari19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchCagliari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.90

Atalanta

1.74

Cagliari

0.90

Atalanta creates 93% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 22 away

1.87

creates per match

0.97

0.83

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Atalanta

1.87

Cagliari

0.97

allows per match

Atalanta

0.83

Cagliari

1.61

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Atalanta-0.15scores less

Cagliari-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Cagliari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

81%

Atalanta or Cagliari

76%

Draw or Cagliari

43%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

32%

Cagliari wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

82%

Atalanta 2+ goals

52%

Atalanta 3+ goals

25%

Cagliari 1+ goals

59%

Cagliari 2+ goals

23%

Cagliari 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

75%

Cagliari (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.83 · 25 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.87 + Cagliari defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.74

Cagliari attack 0.97 + Atalanta defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atalanta scores more

57%

level

24%

Cagliari scores more

19%

Atalanta at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff