Atalanta 1–3 AC Milan: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atalanta

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

AC Milan

R. Freuler 33'

K. Piątek 61', 45+1'

H. Çalhanoğlu 55'

2/16/2019

Serie A · Round 24Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Atalanta45%

×Draw26%

AC Milan29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.16

Atalanta

1.51

AC Milan

1.16

Atalanta creates 30% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

1.81

creates per match

1.47

0.84

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Atalanta

1.81

AC Milan

1.47

allows per match

Atalanta

0.84

AC Milan

1.21

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Atalanta-0.11scores less

AC Milan-0.08on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

71%

Atalanta or AC Milan

74%

Draw or AC Milan

55%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

23%

AC Milan wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

78%

Atalanta 2+ goals

44%

Atalanta 3+ goals

19%

AC Milan 1+ goals

69%

AC Milan 2+ goals

32%

AC Milan 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

61%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.84 · 30 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.21 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.81 + AC Milan defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.51

AC Milan attack 1.47 + Atalanta defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atalanta scores more

45%

level

26%

AC Milan scores more

29%

Atalanta at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

H. Çalhanoğlu

AC Milan · F

8.6

Match Events

18'

Marten de Roon

27'

Suso

33'

R. Freuler↳ J. Iličić

45+1'

K. Piątek↳ R. Rodríguez

55'

H. Çalhanoğlu

59'

D. Kulusevski← A. Gómez

61'

K. Piątek↳ H. Çalhanoğlu

65'

R. Gosens← H. Hateboer

68'

P. Cutrone← K. Piątek

77'

Samu Castillejo← Suso

78'

M. Barrow← D. Zapata

87'

D. Laxalt← Lucas Paquetá

88'

Ricardo Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtalantaAC

Overview

59%Possession41%

14Total Shots7

5Corners2

10Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots7

5On Target3

6Off Target3

3Blocked1

9Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

599Total Passes399

515Accurate Passes314

86%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2