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Atalanta U20 vs Hellas Verona U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Atalanta U20
Atalanta U20
Preview
10:00
Hellas Verona U20
Hellas Verona U20
3/13/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 29
Big match
42%
Atalanta U20
model favours
42%25%33%

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Atalanta U2042%
×Draw25%
Hellas Verona U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atalanta U20
1.50
Hellas Verona U20
1.31

Atalanta U20 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Atalanta U20
1.50
Hellas Verona U20
1.42

allows per match

Atalanta U20
1.21
Hellas Verona U20
1.50

finishing

Atalanta U20+0.00on par
Hellas Verona U20+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta U20 ↓

Hellas Verona U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atalanta U20 or draw
67%
Atalanta U20 or Hellas Verona U20
75%
Draw or Hellas Verona U20
58%

Winning margin

Atalanta U20 wins by 2+
20%
Hellas Verona U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atalanta U20 1+ goals
78%
Atalanta U20 2+ goals
44%
Atalanta U20 3+ goals
19%
Hellas Verona U20 1+ goals
73%
Hellas Verona U20 2+ goals
38%
Hellas Verona U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atalanta U20 (draw refunded)
56%
Hellas Verona U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta U20 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Hellas Verona U20 away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta U20 attack 1.50 + Hellas Verona U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hellas Verona U20 attack 1.42 + Atalanta U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atalanta U20 scores more
42%
level
25%
Hellas Verona U20 scores more
33%

Atalanta U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atalanta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
LWLDW
U20
LLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atalanta U20 face Hellas Verona U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)

Campionato Primavera - 1 returns with Atalanta U20 hosting Hellas Verona U20. Match starts March 13, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.