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Atalanta U20 vs Cagliari U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Atalanta U20
Atalanta U20
Preview
09:00
Cagliari U20
Cagliari U20
4/17/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 33
Big match
47%
Atalanta U20
model favours
47%25%28%

Atalanta U20 sit 7, Cagliari U20 18 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Atalanta U2047%
×Draw25%
Cagliari U2028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atalanta U20
1.59
Cagliari U20
1.18

Atalanta U20 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 39 away

creates per match

Atalanta U20
1.50
Cagliari U20
1.15

allows per match

Atalanta U20
1.21
Cagliari U20
1.69

finishing

Atalanta U20+0.00on par
Cagliari U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta U20 ↓

Cagliari U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atalanta U20 or draw
72%
Atalanta U20 or Cagliari U20
75%
Draw or Cagliari U20
53%

Winning margin

Atalanta U20 wins by 2+
24%
Cagliari U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atalanta U20 1+ goals
80%
Atalanta U20 2+ goals
47%
Atalanta U20 3+ goals
21%
Cagliari U20 1+ goals
69%
Cagliari U20 2+ goals
33%
Cagliari U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atalanta U20 (draw refunded)
62%
Cagliari U20 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta U20 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Cagliari U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta U20 attack 1.50 + Cagliari U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cagliari U20 attack 1.15 + Atalanta U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atalanta U20 scores more
47%
level
25%
Cagliari U20 scores more
28%

Atalanta U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atalanta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
LWLDW
U20
WDDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atalanta U20 face Cagliari U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)

Campionato Primavera - 1 returns with Atalanta U20 hosting Cagliari U20. Match starts April 17, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.