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ASVO vs Dynamo Unacob — Championnat National 2019

ASVO
ASVO
PST
15:00
Dynamo Unacob
Dynamo Unacob
5/16/2020Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 27Stade Municipal de Missérété

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

ASVO52%
×Draw29%
Dynamo Unacob20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASVO
1.31
Dynamo Unacob
0.69

ASVO creates 90% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 87 away

creates per match

ASVO
1.10
Dynamo Unacob
0.82

allows per match

ASVO
0.55
Dynamo Unacob
1.52

finishing

ASVO+0.00on par
Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASVO ↓

Dynamo Unacob →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

ASVO or draw
80%
ASVO or Dynamo Unacob
71%
Draw or Dynamo Unacob
48%

Winning margin

ASVO wins by 2+
24%
Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

ASVO 1+ goals
73%
ASVO 2+ goals
38%
ASVO 3+ goals
14%
Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals
50%
Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals
15%
Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

ASVO (draw refunded)
72%
Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASVO at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.55 · 112 matches

Dynamo Unacob away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASVO attack 1.10 + Dynamo Unacob defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.82 + ASVO defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ASVO scores more
52%
level
29%
Dynamo Unacob scores more
20%

ASVO at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ASVO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ASVO face Dynamo Unacob (Championnat National)

Championnat National returns with ASVO hosting Dynamo Unacob. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

ASVO host Dynamo Unacob at Stade Municipal de Missérété.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.