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ASV Neumarkt vs Würzburger FV — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
Preview
13:00
Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
9/19/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 11
Big match
49%
ASV Neumarkt
model favours
49%23%29%

Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

ASV Neumarkt49%
×Draw23%
Würzburger FV29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV Neumarkt
1.88
Würzburger FV
1.40

ASV Neumarkt creates 34% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.76
Würzburger FV
1.31

allows per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.49
Würzburger FV
2.00

finishing

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par
Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV Neumarkt ↓

Würzburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

ASV Neumarkt or draw
71%
ASV Neumarkt or Würzburger FV
77%
Draw or Würzburger FV
51%

Winning margin

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
27%
Würzburger FV wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
85%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
56%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
29%
Würzburger FV 1+ goals
75%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
41%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
63%
Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV Neumarkt at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.76 + Würzburger FV defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Würzburger FV attack 1.31 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ASV Neumarkt scores more
49%
level
23%
Würzburger FV scores more
29%

ASV Neumarkt at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ASV Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • ASV Neumarkt sit 3, Würzburger FV 13 in the table
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Neumarkt
LLWW
FV
DLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ASV Neumarkt face Würzburger FV (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with ASV Neumarkt hosting Würzburger FV. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.