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ASV Neumarkt vs Würzburger FV — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
M. Bergler 52'
M. Lotzen 76'
A. Braun 19' (OG)
7/29/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 3Stadion am Deininger Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

ASV Neumarkt48%
×Draw23%
Würzburger FV29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV Neumarkt
1.86
Würzburger FV
1.41

ASV Neumarkt creates 32% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 69 away

creates per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.76
Würzburger FV
1.32

allows per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.49
Würzburger FV
1.97

finishing

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par
Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV Neumarkt ↓

Würzburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

ASV Neumarkt or draw
71%
ASV Neumarkt or Würzburger FV
77%
Draw or Würzburger FV
52%

Winning margin

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
27%
Würzburger FV wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
84%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
55%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
28%
Würzburger FV 1+ goals
76%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
41%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
62%
Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV Neumarkt at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.97 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.76 + Würzburger FV defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.86

Würzburger FV attack 1.32 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ASV Neumarkt scores more
48%
level
23%
Würzburger FV scores more
29%

ASV Neumarkt at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ASV Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
A. BraunOwn goal
52'
M. Bergler
76'
M. Lotzen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASV Neumarkt vs Würzburger FV

Würzburger FV beat ASV Neumarkt 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on July 29, 2023.

Goals: A. Braun (19' o.g.), M. Bergler (52'), M. Lotzen (76').

The match was played at Stadion am Deininger Weg in Neumarkt in der Oberpfalz.