Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ASV Neumarkt vs Eintracht Bamberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
Preview
13:00
Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
10/17/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 15
40%
Eintracht Bamberg
model favours
37%24%40%

Eintracht Bamberg raise their game against the top half — 56% wins vs the upper half, only 50% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

ASV Neumarkt37%
×Draw24%
Eintracht Bamberg40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV Neumarkt
1.52
Eintracht Bamberg
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 33 away

creates per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.76
Eintracht Bamberg
1.70

allows per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.49
Eintracht Bamberg
1.27

finishing

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par
Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV Neumarkt ↓

Eintracht Bamberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

ASV Neumarkt or draw
60%
ASV Neumarkt or Eintracht Bamberg
76%
Draw or Eintracht Bamberg
63%

Winning margin

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
18%
Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
78%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
45%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
20%
Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
80%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
47%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
48%
Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV Neumarkt at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

Eintracht Bamberg away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.76 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

Eintracht Bamberg attack 1.70 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ASV Neumarkt scores more
37%
level
24%
Eintracht Bamberg scores more
40%

Eintracht Bamberg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Eintracht Bamberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 5.3 goals
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Neumarkt
LLWW
Bamberg
LWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: ASV Neumarkt host Eintracht Bamberg

October 17, 2026: ASV Neumarkt take on Eintracht Bamberg in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.